European mortgage lending maintains its upward drive, as macroeconomic, geopolitical and credit challenges loom
Brussels, 28 July 2022 – For immediate release
The European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is delighted to announce the publication of its Quarterly Review of European Mortgage Markets for the first quarter of 2022.
Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the EU.
The publication highlights expert analytical commentary together with data tables and charts on the following key indicators:
- Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
- Gross and net residential mortgage lending;
- Regulation & Government intervention;
- Nominal house price indices; and
- Mortgage interest rates;
Key highlights of Q1 2022 Quarterly Review
Macroeconomic context:
- In Q1 2022, the European economy expanded further. GDP levels in the euro area increased by a 5.4% on a yearly basis and by a rate of 5.6% in the EU27 space. Against this backdrop, household and public expenditure increased, as did gross fixed capital formation volumes, signalling a relatively improved economic scenario in Europe. Inflation, however, has remained an economic challenge throughout, with the euro area HICP annual rate closing at 7.5% in March 2022. It is worth noting that the effects of global supply-chain bottlenecks and the geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the conflict in the Ukraine had yet to be reflected in the European economy by the end of the first quarter of 2022. They nevertheless pose new challenges for both European businesses and consumers.
Market developments:
- As of Q1 2022 the combined mortgage stock of the EMF Quarterly Review country sample was EUR 1 tn. The volume of outstanding mortgage loans in Europe grew by 4.8% compared to Q1 2021, down from yearly growth of 6.5% in the previous quarter. In the meantime, gross residential lending continued its upward trend, entering its fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Combined lending volumes expanded by a yearly rate of 2%.
- Housing supply indicators varied significantly in Q1 2022 across EMF jurisdictions, pointing to a rather mixed scenario. Some reports indicate that residential construction has slowed down, due a series of sectoral-level shortages, while other information suggests that housing supply expanded over the quarter. House price evolutions remain on the upside once more.
- Regulatory changes and government actions in Q1 2022 focused on addressing the issue of borrower indebtedness and related risks, especially considering the recent inflationary trends.
- Lastly, the Q1 2022 unweighted average interest rate of the EMF sample was 2.15%, 14 bps higher than Q4 2021’s rate. It is the first consecutive quarter in which the average rate of the EMF country sample increases. It is also the steepest increase since 2018. From a country standpoint, a majority of jurisdictions report mortgage rate increases.
Contact:
Daniele Westig José Díaz
Economic Adviser Policy Adviser
Tel: +32 2 285 40 40 Tel: +32 2 285 40 30
dwestig@hypo.org jdiaz@hypo.org
