Most Mortgage and housing markets in Europe record further gains, maintaining their momentum. However, new market signals point to potential changes.
Brussels, 13 December 2021 – For immediate release
The European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is delighted to announce the publication of its Quarterly Review of European Mortgage Markets for the second quarter of 2021.
Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the EU.
The publication highlights expert analytical commentary together with data tables and charts on the following key indicators:
- Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
- Gross and net residential mortgage lending;
- Regulation & Government intervention;
- Nominal house price indices; and
- Mortgage interest rates;
Key highlights for Q2 2021 Quarterly Review
Macroeconomic context:
- The European macroeconomic landscape saw a relative improvement in Q2 2021 with respect to the same period in the previous year. As per the latest Eurostat reports, EU27 GDP increased by 13.8% in Q2 2021 (Euro area growth was 14.8% on the same basis), following a 1.2% yearly drop in Q1 2021. This apparent bounce-back of the European economy, albeit partial, was due to a strong contribution of household consumption, suggesting an improved economic outlook. In this scenario, the European mortgage stock and gross lending recorded new yearly increases at aggregated level.
Market developments:
During Q2 2021, the mortgage and housing markets continued to expand, despite the apparent weakness of the overall European economy.
- In Q2 2021, the aggregated mortgage stock of the EMF Quarterly Review country sample amounted to EUR 7.77 tn. Outstanding mortgage loans in Europe grew by 6.2% versus the same period of the previous year, up from 5.7% in the previous quarter. Gross lending reached a total volume of EUR 388 bn. The latter expanded by a yearly rate of 31% (14% in Q1 2021), which signals a relative acceleration of mortgage lending after a period (Q2 2020 through Q4 2020) of contraction.
- As in the previous quarter, the European housing supply increased once more in most jurisdictions in Q2 2021, in line with the previous upward trend. Concerning house prices, most countries report an additional round of increases. The pace of growth, however, varied from country to country. Demand for housing, in the meantime, continued to expand.
- Several public relief measures put forward to curtail the economic fallout of the pandemic came to an end during this period, coinciding with the apparent improvement of the macroeconomic scenario. However, recent policy decisions indicate that public authorities are seeking to facilitate and/or support residential lending and house purchases in the aftermath of the pandemic.
- Lastly, the EMF country sample registers additional cuts in their average rates. The sample’s overall unweighted average stands at 1.86%, down from 1.87% in Q1 2021. The current reading is lowest recorded in the Quarterly Review series. Despite this, most jurisdiction report country-specific rate increases.
