Press release

Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the EU.

The publication highlights expert analytical commentary together with data tables and charts on the following key indicators:

• Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
• Gross and net residential mortgage lending;
• Regulation and Government intervention;
• Nominal house price indices; and
• Mortgage interest rates.

Key highlights from the Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

Macroeconomic context:

In the second quarter of 2024 and compared with the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.3% in both the euro area and the EU, according to Eurostat. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2024, after +0.5% in the euro area and +0.6% in the EU in the previous quarter.

The number of employed persons increased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.6% in July 2024, up from 2.5% in June, whereas in 2023 the rate stood at 5.3%.

Market developments:

The total residential mortgage stock of the EMF country sample increased slightly to EUR 8.23 tn by the end of the second quarter. This is a decrease of 0.74% y-o-y.

• Gross lending increased by 1.6% y-o-y in Q2 2024. Total quarterly non-seasonally adjusted gross lending was approximately EUR 198 bn in Q2, compared to EUR 195 bn in Q4 of the previous year. Gross lending increased significantly in Q2 2024 on a y-o-y basis in Hungary (112%) and Czechia (83%), while it decreased the most in France (-26%), Finland (-24%) and Italy (-21%), all values considering EUR figures.
• There are no clear trends or patterns in house prices across the countries considered. The simple average of house price index values for the EMF country sample decreased slightly in Q2 2024 to 161.1 (from 165.4 in Q4, base year 2015). After a strong increase in Q2 2023 and Q1 2024, House Price Indexes (HPIs) have been decreasing.
• Inflation and a resulting depletion of household savings was a significant concern for governments and authorities within the EMF country sample. Consequently, government efforts were mainly focused on addressing housing and mortgage affordability. Additional measures were implemented to support supply, which was under strain from increased input prices in the previous year.
• The average unweighted EMF mortgage interest for Q2 2024 was 4.61%, 12 bps lower than Q2 2024 (4.73%).

Eva Dervaux    

Junior Policy Adviser

Tel: +32 472 052 217

edervaux@hypo.org