The European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is delighted to announce the publication of its Quarterly Review of European Mortgage Markets for the fourth quarter of 2024.
Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the European Union (EU).
The publication highlights expert analytical commentary together with data tables and charts on the following key indicators:
• Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
• Gross and net residential mortgage lending;
• Regulation and Government intervention;
• Nominal house price indices; and
• Mortgage interest rates.
Key highlights from the Q4 2024 Quarterly Review
Macroeconomic context:
The EU economy saw moderate overall expansion in Q4 2024 – albeit with small declines in some larger EU countries – and continued low unemployment. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat. To recap, in Q3 2024 GDP had grown by 0.4% in both areas.
Geopolitical tensions have escalated to levels unseen in years. Recent and upcoming elections are shifting dynamics in key economies, fuelling concerns over declining international cooperation and growing scepticism about the future of globalisation. While the impact of the ongoing developments and fragmentation seems to not have impacted financial markets or stock markets during Q4, risks seem to be building up.
The number of employed persons increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU in Q4 2024. Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in December 2024, up from 2.2% in November. The lowest levels of inflation were in Denmark (1.4%), Ireland, Italy and Finland (all 1.7%), and the highest in Hungary (5.7%), Romania (5.3%) and Croatia (5.0%).
Market developments:
The total residential mortgage stock of the EMF country sample increased slightly to EUR 8.23 tn by the end of the fourth quarter. This is a decrease of 0.74% y-o-y.
Total quarterly non-seasonally adjusted gross lending was approximately EUR 289 in Q3 2024 compared to EUR 323 bn in Q4 2024. Compared to Q4 2023, the EMF sample of Gross Residential Mortgage Lending increased by 17%. The values of the gross residential mortgage lending increased in all countries for the year Q4 2023 to Q4 2024 except in Czechia, France and Portugal.
There are no clear trends or patterns in house prices across the countries considered.
Inflation and a resulting depletion of household savings was a significant concern for governments and authorities within the EMF country sample. Consequently, government efforts were mainly focused on addressing housing and mortgage affordability. Additional measures were implemented to support supply, which was under strain from increased input prices in the previous year.
Contact:
Eva Dervaux
Junior Policy Adviser
Tel: +32 472 052 217
edervaux@hypo.org
Established in 1967, the European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is the voice of the European mortgage industry on the retail side of the business, representing the interests of mortgage lenders at European level.
