EMF Publishes Quarterly Review of European Mortgage & Housing Markets Q1 2026 : Interest rates… To fix or not to fix?
The European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is delighted to announce the publication of its Quarterly Review of European Mortgage & Housing Markets for the first quarter of 2026.
Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the European Union (EU).
Quarterly Focus
This edition examines one of the defining questions in European housing finance: fixed-rate or variable-rate mortgages? While the European Central Bank's monetary policy is common across much of Europe, the transmission of interest-rate changes differs considerably depending on national mortgage-market structures.
The Review explores how countries with predominantly fixed-rate mortgages have experienced recent interest-rate cycles differently from those where variable-rate lending remains the norm. Drawing on contributions from national experts, it analyses how mortgage-market structures influence borrower behaviour, monetary policy transmission, financial stability, and housing-market resilience. The publication also considers how regulatory frameworks and evolving borrower preferences are reshaping mortgage markets across Europe.
We are also pleased to feature a guest contribution from Leyre Lopez, Asociación Hipotecaria Española (AHE), who provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution of fixed- and variable-rate mortgage lending in Spain and the factors driving recent changes in borrower preferences.
Country Spotlight: Bulgaria
To mark Bulgaria's adoption of the euro, this edition features a country spotlight by Petar Ivanov (Eversheds Sutherland), examining the implications of euro adoption for the Bulgarian mortgage and housing markets. The article explores the country's historically low mortgage interest rates, distinctive lending practices, and how euro area membership may influence future monetary-policy transmission and mortgage-market development.
Updates EMF Country Fact Sheets
As always, we include up-to-date national factsheets offering a snapshot of mortgage market developments across the EMF country sample.
The country fact sheets highlight analytical commentary together with data tables on the following key indicators:
- Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
- Regulation and Government intervention;
- Nominal house price indices; and
- Mortgage interest rates.
Key highlights from the Q1 2026 Quarterly Review:
- European mortgage markets continued their recovery during the first quarter of 2026, supported by easing interest rates, improving credit demand and renewed lending activity across much of Europe.
- The Review highlights the significant diversity of European mortgage-market structures, with some countries continuing to rely predominantly on long-term fixed-rate lending while others remain largely exposed to variable-rate mortgages.
- The recent ECB tightening and subsequent easing cycle demonstrated that common monetary policy can have markedly different effects on households and housing markets depending on national mortgage-market characteristics.
- Across several countries, borrowers have increasingly reassessed interest-rate risk, contributing to growing demand for fixed-rate and hybrid mortgage products following the sharp increase in borrowing costs between 2022 and 2024.
- Regulatory developments across Europe continue to shape mortgage markets, with several countries introducing measures to promote longer interest-rate fixation periods, strengthen consumer protection, and improve financial resilience.
The first quarter of 2026 demonstrates that, while European mortgage markets continue to recover, important structural differences remain. Understanding how national mortgage-market designs influence the transmission of monetary policy is becoming increasingly important for policymakers, lenders and borrowers as Europe enters a new interest-rate environment.
Contact:
Sage Douglas
Research and Data Adviser