European Mortgage Market Quarterly Review - Q3 2022

In Q3 2022, the European economy expanded once more, although the latest data from Eurostat suggests that the pace of GDP growth has decelerated slightly. According to the latest figures, (September 2022 data), EU27 seasonally adjusted GDP levels increased by 2.4% compared to Q3 2021, after a 4.3% yearly growth rate in the previous quarter. In the meantime, the euro area GDP expanded by 2.1% in Q3 2022 against Q3 2021 (+4.3% y-o-y in Q2 2022). As regards consumer prices, end September 2022’s HICP was 9.9%, after a rate of 8.9% in July 2022. Rapidly increasing energy prices contributed largely to this latest increase. Furthermore, by the end of the third quarter of 2022 and according to the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator, EU business and consumer confidence was at 92.9 points, below the 100-point long term average, suggesting a more moderate economic outlook across various sectors.

European Mortgage Market Quarterly Review - Q2 2022

In terms of overall economic activity, Europe saw additional gains in Q2 2022, although the macroeconomic scenario has become increasingly intricate. According to Eurostat (September 2022 data), EU27 GDP levels increased by 4.2% compared to Q2 2021, down from a 5.5% yearly growth rate in Q1 2022. Euro area GDP levels expanded by 4.1% in Q2 2022 against Q2 2021 (+5.4% y-o-y in Q1 2022). Household demand and investment volumes were largely behind this latest round of GDP growth. Consumer prices, in the meantime, continued to increase. The latest data (for September 2022) indicates that the euro area recorded a 10% inflation rate. The consistent expansion of prices during the first half of 2022 was driven by several factors, but most notably the rapid expansion of energy and food prices, as well as those of manufactured products. Uncertainties linked to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and global supply-side bottlenecks can help explain this inflationary cycle.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q1 2022

In Q1 2022, the European economy expanded further. GDP levels in the euro area increased by a 5.4% on a yearly basis and by a rate of 5.6% in the EU 27 space. Against this backdrop, household and public expenditure increased, as did gross fixed capital formation volumes, signalling a relatively improved economic scenario in Europe. Inflation, however, has remained an economic challenge throughout, with euro area HICP annual rate closing at 7.5% in March 2022. It is worth noting that the effects of global supply-chain bottlenecks and the geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the conflict in the Ukraine have yet to be reflected in the European economy by the end of the first quarter of 2022. They nevertheless pose new challenges for both European businesses and consumers.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q4 2021

The European economy continued to grow in Q4 2021, as GDP levels in the euro area increased by a further 4.6% (compared to Q4 2020) and the broader EU 27 expanded by a yearly rate 4.8%. Despite the overall improvement of the economic situation, inflation took centre stage in late 2021. By end December 2021, euro area inflation stood at 5.0% (after a deflationary period in late 2020), while EU27 consumer prices registered a rate of 5.3%. Rapidly increasing energy prices are in great part driving the new price cycle, although other HICP components, namely services, food products and certain manufactured goods, also had an impact on the overall price levels.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q2 2021

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q3 2021

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q1 2021

In the first quarter of 2021, European residential lending continued to expand, building upon the upward trend that was commented on in the previous editions of this report. The economic situation in Europe, during said period, deteriorated further, as EU GDP levels, according to the latest Eurostat figures, decreased by 1.2% against Q1 2020 figures, following a 4.4% yearly contraction in Q4 2020. The quarterly change also shows a similar narrative, in that the European economy also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, against Q4 2020 production (by a rate of 0.1%).

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q4 2020

From a general economic standpoint, the macroeconomic juncture in the European Union deteriorated slightly in the fourth quarter of 2020. The EU’s GDP contracted by -0.5%, according to Eurostat, against Q3 2020. This decrease in GDP takes place after the mid-year, partial restart, which saw EU production levels increase by a quarterly rate of 11.5% in Q3 2020. This latest downward shift is a result of the second wave of the pandemic and the subsequent implementation of new containment measures across Europe.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q3 2020

Macroeconomic figures in the third quarter of 2020 show some partial recovery from the significant downturn of the previous quarter due to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP rebounded by 11.5% and economic sentiment began to recover during the summer months, although not reaching pre-pandemic levels. Despite the relative improvement of the economy, the vast majority of measures put in place by governments earlier in the year were either maintained or extended during the period in order to mitigate the economic and social consequences of the pandemic.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q2 2020

During the second quarter of 2020 the world experienced the consequences of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. In April, public life practically came to a standstill for the majority of the world’s population due to lockdowns to contain the spread of the pandemic. These lockdowns were gradually eased in Europe in May and June when the pandemic appeared to have slowed down.