Quarterly Review

This publication introduces the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the EU. The EMF Quarterly Review presents tables, charts and comments on the following indicators: Mortgage interest rates, Total residential lending outstanding, Gross and net mortgage lending, Nominal house price indices.

The Quarterly Review Data Hub shows data on mortgage and housing market developments on a more frequent, quarterly, and annual basis. This data set is based on a country sample covering around 95% of the total outstanding mortgage lending in the EU27 and the UK.

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European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q2 2015

The promising trend in EU mortgage and housing markets seen since 2014 also continued in spring 2015 with an increase in gross lending in nearly all countries. More favourable economic fundamentals, decreasing interest rates and a shortage of housing supply, especially in the most dynamic urban areas in Europe, pushed house prices upwards. However, there are large heterogeneities both across and within countries. Notwithstanding the dynamism of this last period, the amount of overall gross lending in the EU is still around 62% of the pre-crisis level peak in 2006. Besides the increasing demand for mortgages, the persistent low interest rate environment also started to shift the preference for mort- gage contracts from a variable to a xed rate in a number of countries.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review - Q1 2015

The strong performance observed during Q3 2014 and Q4 2014 in EU mortgage and housing markets consolidated during Q1 2015. Gross lending grew strongly in most countries and house price developments mirrored rising demand and improving sentiment. The interest rate environment continued to ease, further supporting growth.Nonetheless,mortgage volumes remain far from pre-crisis levels and fragmentation continues to be relatively high both between and within different EU countries, though interest rates on mortgages appear to be converging, even on a nominal level.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q4 2014

The strong performance observed in Q2 and Q3 2014 in EU mortgage and housing markets was consolidated during Q4 2014. Gross lending grew strongly in most countries and house price developments mirrored rising demand and improving sentiment. The interest rate environment continued to contract, further fuelling mortgage markets. Nonetheless, the situation remains far from pre-crisis levels and fragmentation continues to be relatively high both between and within different EU countries, though interest rates on mortgages appear to be converging, even on a nominal level.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q3 2014

The performance of the EU mortgage and housing markets was significantly stronger during Q2 and Q3 2014 than in previous quarters. Gross lending grew in most countries, and house price developments mirrored rising demand and improving sentiment. The interest rate environment continued to contract, further fuelling the mortgage markets. Nonetheless, the situation remains far from pre-crisis levels, and fragmentation continues to be relatively high both between and within different EU countries.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q1 2014

The latest developments in mortgage markets in the EU largely reflect broader economic trends. Countries showing the first signs of economic recovery are also experiencing an improvement in their mortgage market indicators. As with the general economic situation and outlook, the developments in EU mortgage and housing markets are reflecting a highly fragmented picture, with different countries displaying different paces of recovery, both between each other and within themselves.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q4 2013

An easing in the intensity of the crisis is pointing to a possible recovery of many European economies, with potentially positive consequences for EU mortgage and housing markets. Nonetheless, economic fundamentals are still weak and jurisdictions are experiencing different paces of recovery, which is reflected in differing performance across the EU.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q3 2013

In Q3 2013, the proxy used for the EU27 markets1 indicates that gross residential lending increased by +7.0% q-o-q and +9.3% y-o-y to reach 49.2% of its 2007 average. This strong q-o-q performance was mainly due to the positive contribution of the UK (+6.4%) and France (+2.9%), owing to significant seasonal effects for both countries.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q2 2013

In Q2 2013, mainly resulting from the macroeconomic rebound in the euro area and further decreases in mortgage interest rates, gross residential lending in the EU27 increased by +2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) and +2.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in seasonally adjusted terms (i.e. the best performance since Q4 2010). Buoyant developments were observed in the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland and the UK.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q1 2013

In Q1 2013, outstanding residential lending contracted q-o-q for the second consecutive quarter in the EU27 and registered its lowest y-o-y increase since Q2 2011. Nevertheless, there were still significant differences across national markets: outstanding residential lending (in domestic currency) continued to increase robustly y-o-y in Belgium, France, Poland, Romania and Sweden, while noticeable deleveraging processes were observed in Hungary, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

European Mortgage Markets Quarterly Review – Q4 2012

In Q4 2012, the total amount of outstanding mortgage lending increased y-o-y, but contracted q-o-q for the first time since Q2 2011, partly reflecting the noticeable household deleveraging in Ireland, Portugal and Spain. As regards gross lending, in Q4 2012, the total amount decreased significantly in seasonally adjusted terms, despite substantial reductions in mortgage interest rates. For the whole year 2012, gross lending contracted in most markets, resulting from economic recession, poor economic prospects and low consumer confidence.