Geopolitical and Macroeconomic dynamics triggering changes
in European mortgage and housing markets
Brussels, 21 October 2022 – For immediate release
The European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is delighted to announce the publication of its Quarterly Review of European Mortgage Markets for the second quarter of 2022.
Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the EU.
The publication highlights expert analytical commentary together with data tables and charts on the following key indicators:
- Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
- Gross and net residential mortgage lending;
- Regulation & Government intervention;
- Nominal house price indices; and
- Mortgage interest rates;
Key highlights for Q2 2022 Quarterly Review
Macroeconomic context:
- In terms of overall economic activity, Europe saw additional gains in Q2 2022, although the macroeconomic scenario has become increasingly intricate. According to Eurostat (September 2022 data), EU27 GDP levels increased by 4.2% compared to Q2 2021, down from a 5.5% yearly growth rate in Q1 2022. Euro area GDP levels expanded by 4.1% in Q2 2022 against Q2 2021 (+5.4% y-o-y in Q1 2022). Household demand and investment volumes were largely behind this latest round of GDP growth. Consumer prices, in the meantime, continued to increase.
The latest data (for September 2022) indicates that the euro area recorded a 10% inflation rate. The consistent expansion of prices during the first half of 2022 was driven by several factors, but most notably the rapid expansion of energy and food prices, as well as those of manufactured products. Uncertainties linked to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and global supply-side bottlenecks can help explain this inflationary cycle.
Market developments:
- Q2 2022 saw another round of growth for residential mortgage lending in Europe, as aggregated outstanding residential mortgage volumes in the EMF country sample amounted to EUR 8.19 tn, marking yet another record-setting quarter for the Industry. The EMF mortgage stock expanded by a yearly rate of 4.2%, down from 5% y-o-y in the previous quarter. In terms of gross residential lending, the latest available metrics suggest that the aggregated value decreased by -1% on a yearly basis (compared to Q2 2021), ending a 5-quarter long run of consistent year-on-year growth. Overall gross lending amounted to approximately EUR 395 bn, the highest in one year.
- As in the previous quarter, housing supply developments were heterogenous across the EMF country sample, with no clear predominant trend. In terms of house prices, the average EMF house price index increased by 9.1% in Q2 2022 compared to Q2 2021. Even though the price trend shows a consistent expansion since 2014, this rate of growth suggests a significant deceleration, following a 12% yearly increase in Q1 2022. Price developments at national level were diverse, although HPI increases were widespread.
- In terms of regulatory decisions and public interventions, several jurisdictions took further measures to tackle challenges pertaining to creditworthiness, household indebtedness, access to housing finance and green renovations. However, a number of jurisdictions, in light of the macroeconomic scenario, also made policy decisions to contain the economic impact of the energy crisis and consumer price increases.
- As regards mortgage interest rates, the average unweighted interest rate of the EMF sample was 2.75%, 60 bps higher than Q1 2022’s rate. This marks the third consecutive quarter in which the average rate of the EMF average rate has increased. It is also the largest single-quarter interest rate increase in the EMF series. From a country standpoint, a majority of countries reported mortgage rate increases.
