The European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is delighted to announce the publication of its Quarterly Review of European Mortgage Markets for the third quarter of 2023.
Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the EU.
The publication highlights expert analytical commentary together with data tables and charts on the following key indicators:
- Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
- Gross and net residential mortgage lending;
- Regulation & Government intervention;
- Nominal house price indices; and
- Mortgage interest rates.
The Quarterly Review Data Hub shows data on mortgage and housing market developments on a more frequent, quarterly, and annual basis. This data set is based on a country sample covering around 95% of the total outstanding mortgage lending in the EU27 and the UK.
Key highlights from the Q3 2023 Quarterly Review
Macroeconomic context:
- According to publications by Eurostat, in the third quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.1% in the Euro area and increased by 0.1% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2023, GDP had grown by 0.2% in the Euro area and had remained stable in the EU. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% both in the Euro area and in the EU in the third quarter of 2023, after +0.5% in the Euro area and +0.4% in the EU in the previous quarter. During the third quarter of 2023, household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU.
- Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in November 2023, down from 2.9% in October according to the flash estimate from Eurostat. Looking at the main components of Euro area inflation, food, alcohol and tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in November (6.9%, compared with 7.4% in October), followed by services (4.0%, compared with 4.6% in October), non-energy industrial goods (2.9%, compared with 3.5% in October) and energy (-11.5%, compared with -11.2% in October).
- Employment increased by 0.2% in both the Euro area and in the EU in the third quarter of 2023, (after an increase by 0.1% in both zones in Q2). Year on year it increased by 1.3% in the Euro area and by 1.2% in the EU.
- Central banks’ persistent efforts to manage inflation in third quarter of 2023, coupled with heightened economic uncertainty fuelled by global geopolitical risks, are intensifying the prevailing pressure in housing and mortgage markets across Europe. Mortgage interest rates have risen, with notable distinctions observed between the Euro area and other regions. The volume of outstanding mortgages has plateaued in recent quarters, experiencing a modest uptick of approximately 1% from the previous year.
Market developments:
- The aggregated mortgage stock of the EMF country sample increased slightly to EUR 8.32 tn by the end of the third quarter of 2023. The estimated increase in the quarters of 2023 remained at a stable level and amounted to 1.33% y-o-y in Q3. Considering the quarterly increases in 2023, the growth in the mortgage stock consistently remained at a low level, below 0.5%.
- Compared to the previous year, gross residential mortgage lending decreased by 20.5% y-o-y in Q3 2023, after a 29.1% decrease in Q2 2023. Q3 2023 marked the sixth consecutive quarter with a negative yearly growth rate. The quarterly decrease of gross mortgage lending started to ease significantly since Q2 2023. Total gross lending amounted to approximately EUR 264 bn, the lowest level since the pandemic marked Q3 2020.
- The development of house prices across the underlying country sample is challenging to capture, as no clear trends or patterns are present. The simple average of HPI values for the EMF country sample increased slightly in Q3 2023 to an average of 160.7, up from from 159.9 in Q2 2023 (base year 2015).
- Government efforts were predominantly directed towards addressing housing and mortgage affordability issues. Additionally, measures were implemented to support the supply side of the market, which was under strain from increased input prices.
- The average, unweighted EMF mortgage interest for Q3 2023 amounted to 4.96%, 9.3 bps higher than Q2 2023’s average rate (4.86%). This is the highest average rate since the start of the data record in Q1 2009. Moreover, Q3 2023 marks the eighth consecutive increase for the EMF average.
