As residential credit lending continues to increase, changes in housing supply and demand begin to take shape. House prices expand further.
Brussels, 31 January 2022 – For immediate release
The European Mortgage Federation (EMF) is delighted to announce the publication of its Quarterly Review of European Mortgage Markets for the third quarter of 2021.
Produced in cooperation with the Federation’s national experts, the Quarterly Review provides the latest short-term developments in mortgage and housing markets across the EU.
The publication highlights expert analytical commentary together with data tables and charts on the following key indicators:
- Total outstanding residential mortgage lending;
- Gross and net residential mortgage lending;
- Regulation & Government intervention;
- Nominal house price indices; and
- Mortgage interest rates;
Key highlights for Q3 2021 Quarterly Review
- From a macroeconomic standpoint, the European scenario saw a further increase in GDP in Q3 2021 compared to the same period in the previous year. According to Eurostat, EU27 GDP increased by 4.1%, down from a yearly growth rate of 13.8% in Q2 2021. It is the third consecutive quarter with increasing economic activity, although the pace of growth has decelerated. Against this backdrop, the European mortgage stock and gross lending registered additional gains during this quarter.
- In Q3 2021, the mortgage stock of the combined EMF Quarterly Review country sample amounted to approximately to EUR 7.9 tn. The volume of outstanding mortgage loans in Europe grew by 6.6% compared to Q3 2020, improving on Q2 2021’s 6.2% increase. In the meantime, gross lending reached a total volume of EUR 375 bn, marking a 17% yearly expansion. It nevertheless confirms a deceleration in gross lending levels, after recording a peak growth rate of 31% in Q2 2021.
- As in the previous quarter, European housing supply recorded further gains overall in the broader European market, yet developments at national level have been somewhat heterogenous, with some countries reporting significant limitations. As to house prices, all countries report additional increases. The pace of growth, however, varied from country to country. Moreover, there are signs of deceleration. Strong demand for housing and some supply-side constraints can help explain this scenario, although further analysis would be required to properly grasp the HPI growth cycle.
- As businesses have reopened and overall economic activity has started to recover, government measures have shifted from managing the immediate effects of the pandemic to improving access to lending by borrowers, better evaluating borrowers’ creditworthiness and/or tackling supply-side bottlenecks.
- Finally, taken altogether, the Q3 2021 unweighted average interest rate of the EMF sample was 1.89%, 4 bps lower than the Q2 2021 rate (1.92%). Average interest rates decreased in most jurisdictions, although some diverging patterns can be observed.
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